Who would have thought the US-Israeli war on Iran could have any positive spin-offs for global energy? We know this war has strangled 20% of global oil supply and that the world is feeling its effects. We’re paying more for fuel while the price of basic commodities like food is rising.
Whenever the price of oil increases, it has a ripple effect throughout the global economy. So what’s the positive spin-off for global energy from this war? In a nutshell, it’s making world governments realise just how risky it is to rely on fossil fuels, and how easily the world’s energy supply can be held hostage at the whim of an unpredictable head of state. As a result, governments are starting to look towards safer energy alternatives like renewables. Faith Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said in The Guardian that because of this war, governments would lose trust in fossil fuels and change their current energy strategies. “There will be a significant boost to renewables and nuclear power and a further shift toward a more electrified future. And this will cut into the main markets for oil,” he said. We’ve had energy crises before, in 1973, 1979, and in 2024 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Would the world not just continue with fossil fuel dependence afterwards? No, says Birol: “The vase is broken, the damage is done. It will be very difficult to put the pieces back together.” There are only a few regions in the world that produce oil and gas, whereas sun and wind are everywhere. The price of both solar and wind energy has come down enormously, and now they’re the cheapest forms of new electricity generation. It’s quite ironic, isn’t it? The fossil fuel industry bankrolled Trump’s presidential campaign to the tune of $75 million, and the payback was that Trump would promote fossil fuel expansion (“drill, baby, drill!”) and stop the US transition to clean energy. He’s been doing both. I doubt anyone expected Trump to attack Iran, leading to the world’s biggest oil crisis ever. True, this means the oil industry is making millions more now, but on the other hand governments are looking seriously at safer alternatives to fossil fuels. As Guardian columnist George Monbiot wrote last week: “Donald Trump has done more to accelerate the energy transition than anyone else alive.” The war has already triggered a global surge in the demand for electric vehicles, he writes, which has risen in the UK by 23% since the attack on Iran began, by 50% in Germany and 160% in France – with similar interest in India, South-East Asia and South Korea. “Even in the US, where Trump has done everything possible to stymie the technology, there’s 20% more interest than before the war.” The same goes for interest in solar panels and heat pumps. Not what Trump had in mind, I’m pretty sure, and sad that it takes a war to get the world to move seriously towards renewable energy. But at least something good is coming out of all that dreadful death and destruction.
